Matcha Price Trends for 2025–2026
Well, it looks like matcha prices are set to skyrocket this year.
May First-Flush Harvest and Market Auctions
Following the harvest of the year’s first-flush new tea (Shincha) in May, the tea leaves are put up for auction at the market in Kyoto.
Divided by producer name, cultivar, and quantity, the first-flush tea is traded over a period of about one month.
Initial forecasts anticipated a price increase of around 20% to 30%. However, once the auctions actually began,
prices kept surging to double or even triple last year’s rates.
Background Behind the Price Surge
Demand has expanded due to a global matcha boom, intensifying purchasing competition among wholesalers.
Additionally, rising temperatures last year combined with a cold snap in April led to a poor harvest, reducing the overall yield, which further exacerbated the situation.
Structural Issues in Kyoto’s Tea Industry
Furthermore, this highlights a vulnerability in the traditional structure of Kyoto’s tea industry. Normally, wholesalers participate in the market auctions.
Wholesalers then process the purchased leaves, which are subsequently sold to consumers by retailers like us.
However, in Kyoto, certain tea companies that used to be wholesalers but now operate strictly as retailers are still permitted to participate directly in these auctions.
How Structural Shifts Impact Prices
As a result, the standard distribution chain:
Market → Wholesaler → Retailer → Consumer
shifts into:
Market → Retailer → Consumer
Ordinarily, these retailers shouldn’t be allowed to bid in these auctions,
but within the insular traditions of the Kyoto tea industry, they somehow maintain bidding rights.
The Primary Driver of the Price Increase
Because these former-wholesaler retailers bid based on final retail pricing margins, they drive the bidding prices higher and higher.
This is the underlying reason why prices have surged up to three times or more this time around.
The Impact and Mixed Feelings
Without this direct participation from major retailers, we might have been able to offer tea to our customers at a much lower price.
Because of this, this year’s new tea pricing leaves a bit of a bitter taste, personally speaking.
Personally, I feel prices could have stabilized at around double last year’s rates.
(I won’t name names, but I am thinking of certain famous tea shops in Uji known for their matcha jellies and cafes.)
Furthermore, because these retailers are bidding at such high prices, smaller wholesalers with less financial leverage are currently unable to buy anything.
If this trend continues, we may see wholesalers going out of business. It feels as though the **industry’s own unique, deep-rooted customs** have brought about this outcome.
Forecast for This Year’s Price Adjustments
To sum up what turned into a rather long explanation, what does this mean for this year’s new tea price adjustments?
At this stage, we anticipate about a 1.5x price increase for the matcha products we currently carry.
We do source some of our items through direct trade with tea farmers. However, because processing costs are also rising, we expect those items to see a price increase of around 20% as well.
This is an unprecedented situation that no tea merchant has experienced before, and businesses are currently locked in a standoff, watching how others adjust their pricing.
We expect most new pricing to settle and be finalized by July.
The True Value Per Cup of Matcha
Even so, the cost per single cup of matcha remains highly reasonable.
Considering that these leaves are meticulously nurtured by farmers for an entire year and carefully ground using traditional stone mills, we estimate the average post-adjustment price will be around 2,000 yen for a 40g tin.
Since a standard bowl of thin tea (Usucha) uses about 2 grams, the actual cost per cup is only about 100 yen.
Whether you view this price as expensive or cheap is subjective, but from an international perspective, high-quality Japanese matcha is widely recognized as a premium superfood.
With the current weak yen, a cup for 100 yen is an incredible value.
Conclusion and Notice
As mentioned, new pricing from various companies will likely be rolled out soon.
If you would like to secure your items before the price increase takes effect, please place your order soon.
*You will be redirected to our online store.
